Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

OK, thanks for coming back and reading my picks again for the third year, but before you read any further just stop. I want you to take a deep breath – I’ll wait … … …

Can you smell that? It’s football! And it’s back!!

The 2014 NFL season is finally upon us with the defending champion Seahawks to kick things off against the Packers this Thursday. The great thing about the NFL is that things really do reset every year. Seattle is an obvious choice to repeat, but not a definite one. It is always anybody’s game.

Which makes my job pretty hard in week 1! After an off-season of changes, we really don’t have a complete idea of what these 32 teams have to offer for 2014. Week 1 is always the most difficult week in a confidence pool. Stick with me though and you’ll be on your way to weekly and cumulative success!

Week 1…2014…HERE WE GO!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – PHILADELPHIA over Jacksonville – I actually like the foundation the Jaguars seem to be laying. Blake Bortles could be a top quarterback at some point. That point just isn’t right now, mainly because he’s not starting yet, and the Jags are still the Jags.

15 – CHICAGO over Buffalo – It’s a little odd to think the Monsters of the Midway moniker now seems to be more fitting of the blue and orange offense. Even with a healthy Sammy Watkins, the Bills wouldn’t be able to match the fire power of the Bears.

14 – KANSAS CITY over Tennessee – The Chiefs were the big “Worst to First” story of last season and should be able to carry that momentum into the new season. Hopefully, for their sake, they can forget about blowing a huge lead in the playoffs. Playing the Titans should be able to help them quickly forget.

13 – PITTSBURGH over Cleveland – The Browns ended up as the answer for one of the biggest questions of the 2014 NFL Draft - who will draft Johnny Manziel. So for that, and really several reasons, Cleveland does not deserve to win this week.

12 – New England over MIAMI – I think we may be seeing the end of the Patriots dominance of the AFC East soon. It’s just not going to be this year.

11 – DENVER over Indianapolis – I’m still pretty proud of the fact that I called the Colts handing the Broncos first loss last season on a Sunday Night Football game. The two are back on Sunday Night again, but this time it’s in Denver and I’m pretty sure the Broncos still have the taste of the Super Bowl still in their minds.

10 – DETROIT over New York Giants – The Monday Night schedule starts in Motown this year. The Lions still have one of the biggest offenses with all-everything receiver Calvin Johnson. The Giants are going to be a confusing team this year – and I don’t mean that in a good way at all.

9 – ARIZONA over San Diego – The second half of the opening week Monday Night double header takes place in Arizona. I think the Cardinals offense will surprise many this year. If Carson Palmer can stay healthy, Bruce Arians will want to air it out and Palmer has the options to do so.

8 – HOUSTON over Washington – I don’t have any faith in RGIII. He still needs to prove something to me in order to be considered a top quarterback. With JJ Watt on one side of the Houston defensive line and Jadeveon Clowney now on the other side, Griffin should be able to be contained enough for the Texans to end their 14 game skid.

7 – DALLAS over San Francisco – Suspensions and injuries will catch up to the 49ers this year weakening the once dominant unit. A strong offense will help out the Cowboy’s weak defense which leads to Jerry’s boys being the subject of the first ever BOLD PREDICTION OF THE WEEK – THE COWBOYS WILL WIN THE NFC EAST THIS SEASON. (see, it’s a bold prediction because, well, the letters are in bold type…see what I did there?)

6 – Cincinnati over BALTIMORE – The road to a repeat in the AFC North won’t be as smooth as it was for Cincy last year. However an offense with so many options should help the Bengals get past this first big road test.

5 – SEATTLE over Green Bay – A game that Packer fans have been waiting for since two replacement refs had absolutely no idea what was going on in the end zone. Green Bay should give the Seahawks a run in the NFC this year, but the 12^th man celebrating the city’s first championship since the 70’s will prove to be a bit too much to handle.

4 – ATLANTA over New Orleans – The NFC South might be the most entertaining division this year. You can make a claim that all four teams could finish on top, including the league’s basement dwellers a year ago the Falcons. Look for Atlanta to rebound in a big way this year. There’s no better way to start than knocking off the Saints.

3 – Carolina over TAMPA BAY – Staying in the division, the defending champs have a tough start defending their crown. Simply put, this game, and really the Panther’s season, relies on the health of Cam Newton. It looks like he should be a go, but if not, keep this game on the same line put the Bucs as the winner.

2 – Minnesota over ST. LOUIS – While doing your fantasy football research over the summer, you saw that the Rams were set to be a team to watch on the defensive end. They get a tough test to prove themselves right off the bat with Adrian Peterson. I don’t think they can pass this test.

1 – Oakland over NEW YORK JETS – The future for the Raiders has come a little earlier than expected. Second round pick Derek Carr ends up being the first quarterback in the 2014 Draft to start a game. Carr looked solid in the pre-season and a revamped defense may be able to contain the Jets enough to help Carr keep his composure on the road.

While week 1 is the week of the unknown, week 2 could be classified as the week of the, well, do we really know?

We saw a lot of surprises in week 1 – the Bills went to Chicago and beat the Bears, the Titans did the same in Kansas City, the Patriots are currently alone in last place in their division to name a few. Now we have to go through and determine what was a one week thing or will we see the same for the next 16 weeks.

Things may also just become a little cloudier. The Pats have another tough road test. The Bears will go up against one of the top defenses in the league. The Chiefs, who made the playoffs last year, are more than likely now going to start 0-2.

That’s…why they play the games!

Week 2 – HERE WE GO!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – GREEN BAY over New York Jets – The Packers got the 2014 season off to a slow start. But really, on that night in that stadium in Seattle, who wouldn’t? Look for Aaron Rodgers to air it out all over the Jets.

15 – DENVER over Kansas City – The Chiefs lost multiple defenders to injury last week. Not what you want to have happen one week before traveling to Denver.

14 – New Orleans over CLEVELAND – New Orleans came out on the short-end of a shootout in Atlanta last week. As a consolation prize, they get to play the Browns.

13 – TAMPA BAY over St. Louis – The Rams appeared to have zero offense after last week and now the defense is starting to hurt with the news of Chris Long being out for half the year. Not a good time to take a road trip.

12 – SAN FRANCISCO over Chicago – Remember people having questions about the 49ers defense this year? Well, questions answered! Now they get to showcase said defense in the unveiling of the brand new Levis Stadium – just too much for the Bears to handle.

11 – INDIANAPOLIS over Philadelphia – Week 2 ends in the Midwest with what could be a shootout. The Colts almost got out of Denver with an upset win which should give them the momentum to beat the Eagles this Monday.

10 – CINCINNATI over Atlanta – The Bengals come home after a big road divisional win last week. The Falcons had a hard time stopping the pass last week which should make for a big game for the Dalton to Green connection – so much so that this week’s BOLD PREDICTION is that Andy Dalton will throw for over 400 yards for the first time in his career.

9 – TENNESSEE over Dallas – The Cowboys’ defense was exposed last week by the 49ers. That could be just what a young offense like Tennessee’s could need in their home opener.

8 – CAROLINA over Detroit – The proverbial irresistible force meeting an immovable object when the Lions offense meets the Panthers defense. This could end up being the game of the week

7 – Seattle over SAN DIEGO – The champs showed last week that they aren’t going anywhere. The Chargers offense looks like it may have taken a step back from last season, which has the Seahawks defense chomping at the bit.

6 – BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh – I really don’t think that the Ravens players, coaches and staff have waited for a game more in their existence. Nothing to do with the implications of the game, but just something to take their minds off of the Ray Rice situation. The Steelers almost blew a lead to the Browns which makes me question them this season.

5 – Miami over BUFFALO – Both teams are coming off of what should be considered big upsets in week 1, the Dolphins and Bills meet for the top spot in the AFC East for the first time since probably the early 90s. Granted it’s only week 2, but it could go a long way towards a division title upset, especially if the Pats lose again this week. Miami took out the kings last week so look for them to continue their divisional dominance.

4 – Arizona over NEW YORK GIANTS – What has happened to the Giants? In just a few years they have gone from Super Bowl champions to jokes of the league. Just brutal. They need to get their top receivers involved in their new offense or its going to be another long season.

3 – MINNESOTA over New England – The Vikings took advantage of a depleted Rams team last week, but they looked good. Being able to score over 30 points without a touchdown from AP is pretty impressive. The Patriots defense isn’t what it used to be so look for Peterson to have a big day and lead the Vikings to a 2-0 start.

2 – Houston over OAKLAND – Houston took a blow last week losing Jadeveon Clowney for over a month. On the flip side Derek Carr’s debut wasn’t amazing, but it was good. However the Texans just have too many other weapons on defense to allow Carr to put up the needed big numbers for a Raiders win.

1 – Jacksonville over WASHINGTON – The Jaguars actually made a good showing in Philadelphia last week – at least in the first half. The Redskins are really looking out of sync. Look for Jacksonville to get a rare road win.

Welcome back! We had another solid week in Week 7, but still could have been better.

Time to see what Week 8 has in store for us!

Week 8! HERE WE GO!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

15 – KANSAS CITY over St. Louis – The Rams got a home win against the champs last week, but they needed a lot of trickery to do so. You can’t rely on that every week.

14 – DALLAS over Washington – The Cowboys seem to be the real deal this season. It looks like Colt McCoy will be under center for the ‘Skins Monday Night – that’s a good reason to have a lot of confidence in Dallas this week.

13 – DENVER over San Diego – Peyton and the boys have given us no reason to think that we should have anything but a lot of confidence in them at home. The Chargers may keep this close, but a home loss last week showed that San Diego has some chinks in the armor.

12 – NEW ENGLAND over Chicago – The good news for the Patriots is that they get a home game this week…the good news for the Bears is that they DON’T have a home game this week! Seriously, the Blackhawks have more wins in Soldier Field than the Bears do in 2014! Tom Brady is starting to look like the old Tom Brady which isn’t good news for a depleted Chicago secondary.

11 – Miami over JACKSONVILLE – Miami looked really impressive on the road last week. The Fins may be able to make a strong run at the division this season. The Jags are coming off of their first win of the season last week – hard to see them make it two in a row this week.

10 – CINCINNATI over Baltimore – The Bengals are just confusing this year. A lot of the offensive problems, though, revolve around AJ Green and his toe. If he plays, it will be hard to stop Cincy.

9 – ARIZONA over Philadelphia – Hard to imagine but there is an outside chance that this could very well be your NFC Championship game! With Carson Palmer playing the way he is, the Cardinals offense will be able to outscore the Eagles.

8 – NEW YORK JETS over Buffalo – The Jets were a field goal away from an upset in Foxboro last Thursday and the Bills just barely got by half of the Minnesota Vikings at home. The Jets have been close in most of their losses this season – I think this is the week they cross the line.

7 – Seattle over CAROLINA – If you listen closely, you can hear the Packers score on the Panthers again! That game was brutal! It doesn’t get any better as an upset Seahawks team comes to Charlotte. After losing to the Rams, Seattle will be pumped to show they are still the cream of the crop.

6 – Houston over TENNESSEE – Titans fans have started the “Suck for the Duck” campaign (meaning tank the year in order to draft Oregon star quarterback Marcus Mariota) and it looks like the team is obliging. Arian Foster will run all over the Titans so much so that my BOLD PREDICTION is that Arian Foster will have a 200 yard game.

5 – CLEVELAND over Oakland – After looking drastically improved two weeks ago, the Raiders reminded us last week that they are indeed still the Raiders. Look for a huge game for Ben Tate which will allow the Browns to control the game and get the win.

4 – Indianapolis over PITTSBURGH – The Steelers have been very hit or miss this season. Last week they hit and this week the Colts will make sure they miss.

3 – Green Bay over NEW ORLEANS – Sunday Night Football has a shootout on their hands this week. The only thing scarier than the thought of a Saints offense in the dome is this Packer offense in the dome. Rodgers has the team and city R-E-L-A-X ing to the tune of four straight wins averaging over 36 points in that span. Look for win number five this week.

2 – ATLANTA over Detroit – London game number two comes up this week with the Falcons and Lions. Here’s the kicker – the game will be played in prime LONDON time, which translates to a 9:30 a.m. EST kickoff in the states. I’ll be sleeping to the coin told me the Falcons will win.

1 - Minnesota over TAMPA BAY – This could have been a decent game. Unfortunately half of the Vikings offense is gone and the Bucs just can’t seem to get it going. The Vikings were close on the road last week so we’ll give them our one-point line this week.

We almost lost our top line game last week when the Raiders nearly pulled off the comeback to beat the Seahawks in Seattle. This brings up an interesting point though. As most of you who read this know, I am a HUGE Raiders fan (pause for sympathy). Watching Oakland pulling closer and closer to the defending champs last week, I wasn’t thinking about losing my top line game. The only thing that was on my mind was the potential of my team pulling off one of the biggest upsets in recent memory.

Whether it is with your confidence pool or your fantasy team, I think that your actual team should come first. It just makes both the fantasy game and the real game a lot more fun to watch. Use it as justification if you want, but don’t openly cheer for your fantasy quarterback to throw a touchdown against your favorite team. It only sets yourself up for a lose-lose situation.

Alright – Week 10 – HERE WE GO!!!

(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)

13 – Denver over OAKLAND – Once again my Raiders are on the wrong side of the top line. Hard to argue that when they play last year’s two Super Bowl teams in back to back weeks.

12 – SEATTLE over New York Giants – Seattle just squeaked by the Raiders last week. They may just squeak by again, but it is hard to think of a scenario where the Giants come out on top.

11 – ARIZONA over St. Louis – Both teams are coming off of big road wins last week. The luck will run out for the Rams though. The Cardinals are a much tougher home team to play.

10 – GREEN BAY over Chicago – One team spent the bye week giving their coach an extension and one team spent the bye week explaining reports that their coach doesn’t have control of the locker room. Green Bay will be ready for this game, the Bears won’t.

9 – BALTIMORE over Tennessee – The Ravens are sitting in last place in a division without a team under .500. Every win is crucial. Lucky for them they get a home game against the Titans.

8 – Dallas over JACKSONVILLE – The Jags make their yearly trip to London and take the Cowboys with them. Just like last week, this game depends on Tony Romo’s availability. They’ll still win, but if Romo doesn’t play they should be dropped down a few lines.

7 – Pittsburgh over NEW YORK JETS – Logic would tell you that there is no way that Ben Roethlisberger will have a THIRD consecutive six touchdown game…although I don’t think logic realizes that Big Ben is playing the Jets this week.

6 – NEW ORLEANS over San Francisco – A pre-season possible NFC Championship preview turns into just another week 10 game. Not only will the 49ers not make it to a fourth straight title game, but my BOLD PREDICTION is that the 49ers will not make the playoffs this season.

5 – DETROIT over Miami – Calvin is expected to make his long awaited return after the bye week. The Dolphins have been hot as of late but they won’t be able to stop a Lions offense that includes Megatron.

4 – PHILADELPHIA over Carolina – Well, the potential for a butt-fumble sequel has returned with Mark Sanchez filling in for the injured Nick Foles. This bumps the Eagles down a few lines but they should still be able to beat the struggling Panthers.

3 – BUFFALO over Kansas City – The Bills are still fighting for a playoff spot. This will be a close one, but game-manager sensation Kyle Orton should be able to find a way to get a win against a hungry Chiefs team.

2 – TAMPA BAY over Atlanta – Yes, I do realize that the Falcons treated Tampa like a high school JV team in their first meeting. Even with that, there really is just no reason to have faith in Atlanta – especially on the road.

1 – CINCINNATI over Cleveland – The week starts off with a strong AFC North game that both teams need to win. A full healthy offense would give me more confidence in the Bengals, but they should still be able to pull this one out.